The dawning of a new year is an opportune moment to contemplate what has
transpired in the old year, and consider what is likely to happen in the new
one.
Today, I’d like to contemplate that contemplation itself.
The 20th century was an era characterized by rapidly accelerating change in
technology and industry, creating shorter and shorter cultural cycles of
changes in lifestyles. Thus far, the 21st century seems to be following that
trend, at least in its recently concluded first quarter.
The early half of the twentieth century saw the massive disruption caused by
electrification, radio, motion pictures, and then television.
In 1971, Intel poured gasoline on that fire by releasing the 4004, a microchip
generally recognized as the first general-purpose microprocessor. Popular
innovations rapidly followed: the computerized cash register, the personal
computer, credit cards, cellular phones, text messaging, the Internet, the web,
online games, mass surveillance, app stores, social media.
These innovations have arrived faster than previous generations, but also, they
have crossed a crucial threshold: that of the human lifespan.
While the entire second millennium A.D. has been characterized by a gradually
accelerating rate of technological and social change — the printing press and
the industrial revolution were no slouches, in terms of changing society, and
those predate the 20th century — most of those changes had the benefit of
unfolding throughout the course of a generation or so.
Which means that any individual person in any given century up to the 20th
might remember one major world-altering social shift within their lifetime,
not five to ten of them. The diversity of human experience is vast, but most
people would not expect that the defining technology of their lifetime was
merely the latest in a progression of predictable civilization-shattering
marvels.
Along with each of these successive generations of technology, we minted a new
generation of industry titans. Westinghouse, Carnegie, Sarnoff, Edison, Ford,
Hughes, Gates, Jobs, Zuckerberg, Musk. Not just individual rich people, but
entire new classes of rich people that did not exist before. “Radio DJ”,
“Movie Star”, “Rock Star”, “Dot Com Founder”, were all new paths to wealth
opened (and closed) by specific technologies. While most of these people did
come from at least some level of generational wealth, they no longer came
from a literal hereditary aristocracy.
To describe this new feeling of constant acceleration, a new phrase was
coined: “The Next Big
Thing”. In addition to
denoting that some Thing was coming and that it would be Big (i.e.: that it
would change a lot about our lives), this phrase also carries the strong
implication that such a Thing would be a product. Not a development in
social relationships or a shift in cultural values, but some new and amazing
form of conveying salted meat
paste or what-have-you, that would make
whatever lucky tinkerer who stumbled into it into a billionaire — along with
any friends and family lucky enough to believe in their vision and get in on
the ground floor with an investment.
In the latter part of the 20th century, our entire model of capital allocation
shifted to account for this widespread belief. No longer were mega-businesses
built by bank loans, stock issuances, and reinvestment of profit, the new model
was “Venture Capital”. Venture capital is a model of capital allocation
explicitly predicated on the idea that carefully considering each bet on a
likely-to-succeed business and reducing one’s risk was a waste of time, because
the return on the equity from the Next Big Thing would be so disproportionately
huge — 10x, 100x, 1000x – that one could afford to make at least 10 bad bets
for each good one, and still come out ahead.
The biggest risk was in missing the deal, not in giving a bunch of money to a
scam. Thus, value investing and focus on fundamentals have been broadly
disregarded in favor of the pursuit of the Next Big Thing.
If Americans of the twentieth century were temporarily embarrassed
millionaires, those of the twenty-first are all temporarily embarrassed
FAANG CEOs.
The predicament that this tendency leaves us in today is that the world is
increasingly run by generations — GenX and Millennials — with the shared
experience that the computer industry, either hardware or software, would
produce some radical innovation every few years. We assume that to be true.
But all things change, even change itself, and that industry is beginning to
slow down. Physically, transistor density is starting to brush up against
physical
limits.
Economically, most people are drowning in more compute power than they know
what to do with anyway. Users already have most of what they need from the
Internet.
The big new feature in every operating system is a bunch of useless
junk
nobody really
wants
and is seeing remarkably little uptake. Social media and smartphones changed
the world, true, but… those are both innovations from 2008. They’re just not
new any more.
So we are all — collectively, culturally — looking for the Next Big Thing, and
we keep not finding it.
It wasn’t 3D printing. It wasn’t crowdfunding. It wasn’t smart watches. It
wasn’t VR. It wasn’t the Metaverse, it wasn’t Bitcoin, it wasn’t NFTs.
It’s also not AI, but this is why so many people assume that it will be AI.
Because it’s got to be something, right? If it’s got to be something then
AI is as good a guess as anything else right now.
The fact is, our lifetimes have been an extreme anomaly. Things like the
Internet used to come along every thousand years or so, and while we might
expect that the pace will stay a bit higher than that, it is not reasonable to
expect that something new like “personal computers” or “the Internet”
will arrive again.
We are not going to get rich by getting in on the ground floor of the next
Apple or the next Google because the next Apple and the next Google are Apple
and Google. The industry is maturing. Software technology, computer
technology, and internet technology are all maturing.
There Will Be Next Things
Research and development is happening in all fields all the time. Amazing new
developments quietly and regularly occur in pharmaceuticals and in materials
science. But these are not predictable. They do not inhabit the public
consciousness until they’ve already happened, and they are rarely so profound
and transformative that they change everybody’s life.
There will even be new things in the computer industry, both software and
hardware. Foldable phones do address a real problem (I wish the screen were
even bigger but I don’t want to carry around such a big device), and would
probably be more popular if they got the costs under control. One day
somebody’s going to crack the problem of volumetric displays, probably. Some VR
product will probably, eventually, hit a more realistic price/performance ratio
where the niche will expand at least a little more.
Maybe there will even be something genuinely useful, which is recognizably
adjacent to the current “AI” fad, but if it is, it will be some new
development that we haven’t seen yet. If current AI technology were
sufficient to drive some interesting product, it would already be doing it, not
using marketing disguised as
science
to conceal diminishing
returns
on current investments.
But They Will Not Be Big
The impulse to find the One Big Thing that will dominate the next five years is
a fool’s errand. Incremental gains are diminishing across the board. The
markets for time and attention are largely saturated. There’s no need for
another streaming service if 100% of your leisure time is already committed to
TikTok, YouTube and Netflix; famously, Netflix has already considered
sleep
its primary competitor for close to a decade - years before the pandemic.
Those rare tech markets which aren’t saturated are suffering from pedestrian
economic problems like wealth inequality, not technological bottlenecks.
For example, the thing preventing the development of a robot that can do your
laundry and your dishes without your input is not necessarily that we couldn’t
build something like that, but that most households just can’t afford it
without wage growth catching up to productivity
growth. It doesn’t make sense for
anyone to commit to the substantial R&D investment that such a thing would
take, if the market doesn’t exist because the average worker isn’t paid enough
to afford it on top of all the other tech which is already required to exist
in society.
The projected income from the tiny, wealthy sliver of the population who
could pay for the hardware, cannot justify an investment in the software past
a fake version remotely operated by workers in the global south, only made
possible by Internet wage
arbitrage,
i.e. a more palatable, modern version of indentured servitude.
Even if we were to accept the premise of an actually-“AI” version of this, that
is still just a wish that ChatGPT could somehow improve enough behind the
scenes to replace that worker, not any substantive investment in a novel,
proprietary-to-the-chores-robot software system which could reliably perform
specific functions.
What, Then?
The expectation for, and lack of, a “big thing” is a big problem. There are
others who could describe its economic, political, and financial dimensions
better than I can. So then let me speak to my expertise and my audience: open
source software developers.
When I began my own involvement with open source, a big part of the draw for me
was participating in a low-cost (to the corporate developer) but high-value (to
society at large) positive externality. None of my employers would ever have
cared about many of the applications for which
Twisted forms a core bit of infrastructure; nor would I
have been able to predict those applications’ existence. Yet, it is nice to
have contributed to their development, even a little bit.
However, it’s not actually a positive externality if the public at large can’t
directly benefit from it.
When real world-changing, disruptive developments are occurring, the
bean-counters are not watching positive externalities too closely. As we
discovered with many of the other benefits that temporarily accrued to
labor
in the tech economy, Open Source that is usable by individuals and small
companies may have been a ZIRP. If you know you’re gonna make a billion
dollars you’re not going to worry about giving away a few hundred thousand here
and there.
When gains are smaller and harder to realize, and margins are starting to get
squeezed, it’s harder to justify the investment in vaguely good vibes.
But this, itself, is not a call to action. I doubt very much that anyone
reading this can do anything about the macroeconomic reality of higher interest
rates. The technological reality of “development is happening slower” is
inherently something that you can’t change on purpose.
However, what we can do is to be aware of this trend in our own work.
Fight Scale Creep
It seems to me that more and more open source infrastructure projects are tools
for hyper-scale application development, only relevant to massive cloud
companies. This is just a subjective assessment on my part — I’m not sure what
tools even exist today to measure this empirically — but I remember a big part
of the open source community when I was younger being things like Inkscape,
Themes.Org and Slashdot, not React, Docker Hub and Hacker News.
This is not to say that the hobbyist world no longer exists. There is of course
a ton of stuff going on with Raspberry Pi, Home Assistant, OwnCloud, and so on.
If anything there’s a bit of a resurgence of self-hosting. But the interests
of self-hosters and corporate developers are growing apart; there seems to be
far less of a beneficial overflow from corporate infrastructure projects into
these enthusiast or prosumer communities.
This is the concrete call to action: if you are employed in any capacity as an
open source maintainer, dedicate more energy to medium- or small-scale open
source projects.
If your assumption is that you will eventually reach a hyper-scale inflection
point, then mimicking Facebook and Netflix is likely to be a good idea.
However, if we can all admit to ourselves that we’re not going to achieve a
trillion-dollar valuation and a hundred thousand engineer headcount, we can
begin to consider ways to make our Next Thing a bit smaller, and to accommodate
the world as it is rather than as we wish it would be.
Be Prepared to Scale Down
Here are some design guidelines you might consider, for just about any open
source project, particularly infrastructure ones:
-
Don’t assume that your software can sustain an arbitrarily large fixed
overhead because “you just pay that cost once” and you’re going to be
running a billion instances so it will always amortize; maybe you’re only
going to be running ten.
-
Remember that such fixed overhead includes not just CPU, RAM, and filesystem
storage, but also the learning curve for developers. Front-loading a
massive amount of conceptual complexity to accommodate the problems of
hyper-scalers is a common mistake. Try to smooth out these complexities and
introduce them only when necessary.
-
Test your code on edge devices. This means supporting Windows and macOS, and
even Android and iOS. If you want your tool to help empower individual
users, you will need to meet them where they are, which is not on an EC2
instance.
-
This includes considering Desktop Linux as a platform, as opposed to Server
Linux as a platform, which (while they certainly have plenty in common) they
are also distinct in some details. Consider the highly specific example of
secret storage: if you are writing something that intends to live in a cloud
environment, and you need to configure it with a secret, you will probably
want to provide it via a text file or an environment variable. By contrast,
if you want this same code to run on a desktop system, your users will
expect you to support the Secret
Service.
This will likely only require a few lines of code to accommodate, but it is
a massive difference to the user experience.
-
Don’t rely on LLMs remaining cheap or free. If you have LLM-related
features, make sure that they are sufficiently severable from the rest of
your offering that if ChatGPT starts costing $1000 a month, your tool
doesn’t break completely. Similarly, do not require that your users have
easy access to half a terabyte of VRAM and a rack full of 5090s in order to
run a local model.
Even if you were going to scale up to infinity, the ability to scale down and
consider smaller deployments means that you can run more comfortably on, for
example, a developer’s laptop. So even if you can’t convince your employer
that this is where the economy and the future of technology in our lifetimes is
going, it can be easy enough to justify this sort of design shift, particularly
as individual choices. Make your onboarding cheaper, your development feedback loops tighter, and your systems generally more resilient to economic headwinds.
So, please design your open source libraries, applications, and services to run
on smaller devices, with less complexity. It will be worth your time as well
as your users’.
But if you can fix the whole wealth inequality thing, do that first.
Acknowledgments
Thank you to my patrons who are supporting my writing on
this blog. If you like what you’ve read here and you’d
like to read more of it, or you’d like to support my various open-source
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